19. Net To Newspapers: Drop Dead 当报纸遭遇网络死路一条 当报纸遭遇网络
  1.Newspapers are cockroaches . 报纸就像是蟑螂,生命力超强。 No matter what is introduced into the media ecosystem, the oldest of the Big Media survives. 无论传媒界的“生态系统”出现什么新的对手, 这个传媒业老大哥总能安然度过。 Despite decades of doomsayers, newspapers prospered through radio, through TV and cable, through video games, through the Internet... 尽管十多年来,不断有人预言 报纸会走向穷途末路,报纸还是顺利经受了广播、电视、电报、电视游戏和因特网的挑战 和考验而继续蓬勃发展……。 Not so fast. 稍等,先别这么乐观。 Suddenly, even sober Wall Street analysts think something new is afoot.突然之间, 事态似乎起了变化,甚至是华尔街冷静的分析家们也认为新情况在悄然发生。
  2.What looms now "is different from all other threats," says Lauren Rich Fine, a Merrill Lynch & Co. analyst who has covered the industry since the 1980s. Lauren Rich Fine是美林证券的分析家,他从20世纪80年代就开始关注这个行业的发展,他说:“这 次报纸受到了前所未有的威胁。” Consumers are shifting decisively to online information, says Fine, especially the young, and are no longer yoked to the local newspaper. " Lauren Rich Fine说,人 们,尤其是年轻人,坚决地由报纸转向了网络信息,从而摆脱了报纸的束缚。 Ads are following the eyeballs to where they make transactional decisions." “在 消费者要做出与交易相关决定时,他们的眼球盯在哪里,广告就会跟到哪里。” Fine recently forecast that newspapers' profit margins are set to enter a long period of decline.Lauren Rich Fine最近预测,报纸的利润要陷入长期低迷。
  3.The new and troubling reality for newspapers is that even if they excel as purveyors of information to appreciative audiences, they still face tough business terrain. "最新的残酷现实是,虽然报纸对于能欣赏他们的忠实读者来说,仍然是信息传 播的强力媒介,但它们仍然面临着残酷的商业前景。 They can try to be the destination where you go online and [can] be really successful with citizen journalism and blogs," says Fine. Fine说:“报纸可以试着牵手网络, 随着博客和平民新闻业的发展而获得成功。” But such innovations are "not going to pay a lot of bills."但是这样的革新也“不 会帮助报社减轻多少运营的成本压力。”
  4.Newspaper execs are groping for some killer app, but nothing has yet taken hold. 报业主管们仍然在探寻能一招制敌的解决问题的良方,但目前仍是一无所获。 Charging for online content works for The Wall Street Journal, where Web-only subscriptions cost $79still far below the $215 print subscriptionbut no other brand-name newspaper dares to follow. 《华尔街日报》对网上信息进行收费,似乎还 挺奏效。电子版报纸的订费是每年79美元,比215美元的印刷版便宜多了。然而,其他知名 报纸都不敢原样照搬它的经验: The New York Times will charge Web users to read its columnists' prose later this year, but the Los Angeles Times just lifted the fee for its arts listings site,
calendarlive.com. Washington Post Co.Chairman Donald E. Graham has said he won't charge for washingtonpost.com.《纽约时报》今年后半年只会对专栏的内容进行收费; 但是《落杉机时报》只是提高了其艺术版calendarlive.com的费用;《华盛顿邮报》的主 席DonaldE.Graham说他们不打算对网站washingtonpost.com进行收费。
  5.Internet damage was quantified in an April McKinsey & Co. report on online classified ads that bluntly talked about "price destruction." 麦肯锡在四月份出 示的一份关于在线分类广告的报告中,就因特网对报业造成的损失进行了量化分析,报告 中很直率地谈到了“价格竞争”。The Internet's effect on help-wanted classifieds, the study found, cost newspapers $
  1.9 billion in revenue between 1996 and 20
  04. 研 究发现,因特网对照品类广告产生了巨大的影响,导致报纸在1996-2004年间营业收入损失 19亿美元。 And classified-ad categories like real estate and automotive may not be exempt from such trends, the report warned. 分类广告中类似房地产和汽车等专栏可能也未能逃脱 厄运。 Newspapers have been hurt by the quiet march of free (or low-cost) classifieds on craigslist.org, which now serves more than 100 U.S. regions and 33 countries and logs more than
  2.5 billion page views a month.报告警告说:craigslist.org上的免 费分类广告快速蔓延,这个网站已经覆盖了33个国家和美国国内100多个地区,一个月之内 会有25页的阅读量,报纸已经深受其害。
  6.Further pressure may be discerned in analysts' studies showing recent increases in discounted newspaper subscriptions. This coincided roughly with widespread broad-band adoption, enabling painless perusal of endless free content. And it has occurred alongside the advent of free dailies from the likes of Sweden's Metro International10 and Knight Ridder11, which in February bought five free dailies in California.
  6.分析家的研究结果说明了报业面临着更深一层的压力-报纸订阅开始打折。 当今宽带广 泛采用,读者能够毫不费力地阅读无限量的免费信息。在这样的背景下,瑞典的Metro International和Knight Ridder开始发行免费日报,Kinght Ridders收购了五家旧金湾地 区的免费赠阅日报。
  7.Companies like Knight Ridder and Tribune Co. have also moved aggressively into low-cost and free classifieds online. But holding share via ultra-low prices means, in bottom-line terms, that "you lose for winning," says Fine, substituting lower-margin for higher-margin business. Knight Ridder exec Hilary A. Schneider disputes the lower-margin claim, pointing to successes with online and offline classified packages. But that doesn't convince. Given the Internet's vast, almost infinite, expanse, scarcity will never drive ad pricing online. "There's just so much inventory out there," says Deutsche Bank analyst Paul Ginocchio.
  7. Knight Ridder和Tribune Co.等公司通过(免费日报等)手段向网上的低成本或免费 分类广告发起攻势,可谓来势汹汹。但是,Fine认为,如果我们看看最终的经营结果,通 过超低价格来争取市场份额是“杀敌三千,自损一万”, 这样做只不过是用低利率的经营取代 了高利润的经营。Knight Ridder的高管Hilary A.Schneider对这种“低利润率经营”的说法 不以为然,Schneider也很自豪于自己将网上与报纸的分类广告进行组合的成功尝试。但光 是这点成功是不具备足够说服力的。要知道互联网的覆盖面是极其宽广甚至无边的,不管
其中登出的某些需求多么冷僻,也永远不会打压互联网广告的价格。德意志银行的分析员 Paul Ginocchio说:“互联网上的分类目录真是浩瀚无边。”
  8.No medium disappears quickly, and it will be a while before rusting newspaper boxes creak vacantly in the breeze. Newspaper companies now pursue digital deals. Recently, Gannett acquired online ad tech provider PointRoU, and E.W. Scripps snagged comparison shopping service Shopzilla. Diversifying means snapping up Web outfits-and therein lies an unpleasant reminder. Newspapers are cockroaches. But the Net's starting to resemble Black Flag.12
  8.如何一个媒体形式都不会快速消亡。 要等到“生锈的空报纸纸箱在微风中吱吱做响” 的 情景尚需时日。报业一直在寻求并购网络公司。最近,Gannett收购了在线广告技术提供商 PointRoll,E.W.Scipps则收购了价格比较购物网站Shopzilla。 多元化意味着各大报纸都在 迅速为自己增添网络装备--然而网络却总是带着不祥的暗示:报纸的生命力确实如蟑螂般 顽强,但网络却开始带着杀气向它走来。
 

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