[31] The barrier to change is not too little caring; it is too much complexity. [31] 改变世界的阻碍,并非人类的冷漠,而是世界实在太复杂。
[32] To turn caring into action, we need to see a problem, see a solution, and see the impact. But complexity blocks all three steps. [32] 为了将关心转变为行动,我们需要找到问题,发现解决办法的方法,评 估后果。但是世界的复杂性使得所有这些步骤都难于做到。
[33] Even with the advent of the Internet and 24-hour news, it is still a complex enterprise to get people to truly see the problems. When an airplane crashes, officials immediately call a press conference. They promise to investigate, determine the cause, and prevent similar crashes in the future. [33] 即使有了互联网和 24 小时直播的新闻台,让人们真正发现问题所在, 仍然十分困难。当一架飞机坠毁了,官员们会立刻召开新闻发布会,他们承诺进 行调查、找到原因、防止将来再次发生类似事故。
[34] But if the officials were brutally honest, they would say: "Of all the people in the world who died today from preventable causes, one half of one percent of them were on this plane. We're determined to do everything possible to solve the problem that took the lives of the one half of one percent." [34] 但是如果那些官员敢说真话,他们就会说:“在今天这一天,全世界所 有可以避免的死亡之中,只有
  0.5%的死者来自于这次空难。我们决心尽一切努 力,调查这个
  0.5%的死亡原因。”
[35] The bigger problem is not the plane crash, but the millions of preventable deaths.
[35] 显然, 更重要的问题不是这次空难, 而是其他几百万可以预防的死亡事 件。
[36] We don't read much about these deaths. The media covers what's new ? and millions of people dying is nothing new. So it stays in the background, where it's easier to ignore. But even when we do see it or read about it, it's difficult to keep our eyes on the problem. It's hard to look at suffering if the situation is so complex that we don't know how to help. And so we look away. 我们并没有很多机会了解那些死亡事件。媒体总是报告新闻,几百万人将要死去 并非新闻。如果没有人报道,那么这些事件就很容易被忽视。另一方面,即使我 们确实目睹了事件本身或者看到了相关报道,我们也很难持续关注这些事件。看 着他人受苦是令人痛苦的,何况问题又如此复杂,我们根本不知道如何去帮助他 人。所以我们会将脸转过去。
[37] If we can really see a problem, which is the first step, we come to the second step: cutting through the complexity to find a solution. 就算我们真正发现了问题所在,也不过是迈出了第一步,接着还有第二步:那就 是从复杂的事件中找到解决办法。
[38] Finding solutions is essential if we want to make the most of our caring. If we have clear and proven answers anytime an organization or individual asks "How can I help?," then we can get action ? and we can make sure that none of the caring in the world is wasted. But complexity makes it hard to mark a path of action for everyone who cares ? and that makes it hard for their caring to matter. [38]如果我们要让关心落到实处,我们就必须找到解决办法。如果我们有一 个清晰的和可靠的答案,那么当任何组织和个人发出疑问“如何我能提供帮助” 的时候,我们就能采取行动。我们就能够保证不浪费一丁点全世界人类对他人的 关心。但是,世界的复杂性使得很难找到对全世界每一个有爱心的人都有效的行 动方法,因此人类对他人的关心往往很难产生实际效果。
[39] Cutting through complexity to find a solution runs through four predictable stages: determine a goal, find the highest-leverage approach, discover the ideal technology for that approach, and in the meantime, make the smartest application of the technology that you already have ? whether it's something sophisticated, like a drug, or something simpler, like a bednet. [39]从这个复杂的世界中找到解决办法,可以分为四个步骤:确定目标, 找到最高效的方法,发现适用于这个方法的新技术,同时最聪明地利用现有的技 术,不管它是复杂的药物,还是最简单的蚊帐。
[40] The AIDS epidemic offers an example. The broad goal, of course, is to end the disease. The highest-leverage approach is prevention. The ideal technology would be a vaccine that gives lifetime immunity with a single dose. So governments, drug companies, and foundations fund vaccine research. But their work is likely to take more than a decade, so in the meantime, we have to work with what we have in hand ? and the best prevention approach we have now is getting people to avoid risky behavior. [40] 艾滋病就是一个例子。总的目标,毫无疑问是消灭这种疾病。最高效 的方法是预防。 最理想的技术是发明一种疫苗, 只要注射一次, 就可以终生免疫。 所以,政府、制药公司、基金会应该资助疫苗研究。但是,这样研究工作很可能 十年之内都无法完成。因此,与此同时,我们必须使用现有的技术,目前最有效 的预防方法就是设法让人们避免那些危险的行为。
 

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