Influences of RMB Appreciation 0n our import and export trade and Countermeasures of Long-term Appreciation of RMB
中文摘要: 中文摘要:自 2005 年 7 月 21 日起,我国开始实行以市场供求为基
础、参考一篮子货币进行调节、有管理的浮动汇率制度;与此同时, 人民币汇率调整为 1 美元=
  8.11 元,升值 2%。由此,人民币在经历亚 洲金融危机以来的稳定和实际升值以后,终于拉开了正式升值的序 幕。根据各方面的分析,到 2020 年以前,人民币将处于长期升值的 趋势之中。众所周知,汇率对进出口贸易具有较大的影响,因为汇率 反映的是一种货币相对于另一种货币的价格, 所以汇率的改变将直接 传导给进出口商品和服务的价格,从而影响到进出口数量。本文研究 的范围是人民币升值给进出口贸易带来的影响,包括正面影响、负面 影响、出口、进口、进出口商品结构、贸易方式等。本研究基于权威 部门的统计数据,利用国际贸易相关理论,采用实证和分析相结合的 方法, 试图全面分析人民币升值尤其是加速升值对我国进出口贸易的 影响,以及面对人民币升值应该的一些措施。
Since July 21, 2005, China began to implement a managed floating exchange rate system based on market supply and demand, with reference to a basket of currencies. At the same time, RMB exchange rate adjusts to $1 =
  8.11 RMB with an appreciation of 2%. Thus, after the Asian financial crisis in the experience of the stability and a real appreciation, RMB finally starts the prelude of appreciation. According to the analysis, by 2020, the RMB will be on a long-term appreciation trend. As is known, rate of exchange has great influence on import and export trade, because the exchange rate is a kind of currency reflects the relative to another currency exchange. So the change of exchange rate will directly affect import and export’s prices of goods and services, thus affecting import and export quantity. This research is about the influence of RMB appreciation for import and export trade, including the impact of positive effects and negative effects, import, export, import and export commodity structure and ways of trade, etc. This research is based on the authority of the statistics department, using the theory of international trade, adapting the method of combining demonstration and analysis, attempts to comprehensively analyze the appreciation of RMB particularly accelerated appreciation’s influence on our import and export trade, and some of the measures should be taken to handle RMB appreciation.
In different period of economic development, China's RMB exchange rate mechanism adopted different. In July 2005, China's RMB exchange rate formation mechanism was reformed with a reference to basket of currencies of mediation to implement a managed floating exchange rate system. Since then, RMB went in to a long-term slow appreciation track. Especially since 2007, the RMB appreciation has accelerated the pace of record highs. To December 24, 2007, the RMB against the U.S. dollar breakthrough
  7.3315:1and has appreciated
  6.09%. And China's import and export trade has also experienced a tortuous history. Since the reform and opening up policy, China's import and export went into the track of healthy development, especially in recent years, China's foreign trade volume, quality and structure have achieved degrees of improvement. In 2002, China became the world's fifth largest trading nation. In 2004 China made it 6 years earlier to implement a long term goal to gain a 10000 billon foreign trade total amount, and finally the total number was
  1.15477 trillion U.S. dollars. China’s foreign trade shared 12% of the world’s total and became the world's third largest trading power, behind the United States and Germany. Since then, China's import and export trade continued to lead a double-digit growth. In 2006, China's foreign trade volume reached
  1.7604 trillion U.S dollars, in 2007 broke two trillion U.S dollars, the total foreign trade reached
trillion U.S dollars. How much impact on China's import and export trade does RMB appreciation have? What are the positive effects and negative effects? What kind of influence does RMB appreciation have on China's import and export quantity, quality, amount, structure and ways of trade? This article will focus in January 2007 since the revaluation, for example, from the perspective of empirical and statistical to make an analysis of RMB appreciation on China's import and export trade. As is known, rate of exchange has great influence on import and export trade, because the exchange rate is a kind of currency reflects the relative to another currency exchange. So the change of exchange rate will directly affect import and export prices of goods and services, thus affecting import and export quantity. RMB appreciation on China's import and export trade can be divided into positive and negative effects of both.
ⅠRMB appreciation’s positive impact on the import and export trade
  1.1 Improve the trade environment in China
For a long time, China implements mercantile system, that is to bring down production costs, expand product in the international market share and exports to earn more foreign exchange. Under the guidance of this line of thought, China's trade surplus grows, foreign exchange reserves have risen steadily, and only years of effort China has become
the world's first, and its amount is larger and larger than the second one. To some extent, surplus and foreign exchange reserves indicates that national prosperity and the improvement of China's international status. However, from another perspective, a long time high trade surplus and foreign exchange reserves means China's foreign trade environment can easily deteriorate and become the object of other countries, and even become a scapegoat for economic problems abroad and a tool for foreign political force. And if RMB appreciates, China's export growth will slow down some and the import growth will be accelerated, which can benefit the balance of external trade and release the rub between trading partners. At the same time,it will not lead to a greater negative impact on national economic growth.RMB appreciation can ease the pressure of the trade balance and reduce the risk of macroeconomic possible. Appreciation of the RMB is also conducive to lowering the excess of domestic exports of low-efficiency products, slowing growth rate of foreign exchange
reserves, reducing macroeconomic potential inflationary,excess liquidity and the risk of U.S. dollar assets.
  1.2 Enhance the trade competitiveness of enterprises and promote trade growth mode
After revaluation, the dollar price of exports increased, foreign consumers have to pay a higher cost to buy products from China. The competitive advantage of cheap Chinese products will gradually
disappear and the profit margins of exporters will be reduced and instead, companies will seek new competitive advantages. In this case, those corporations with low-tech, low added value, poor management, high cost and low efficiency will be pushed out of overseas markets. And competitive enterprises will actively improve the operation and management, in pursuit of technology, brand and marketing strategy to win, relying on science and technology, brand design and product quality for competitive advantage. Meanwhile, the RMB appreciation would reduce the cost of imports of advanced equipment, cost of funds to purchase of advanced equipment continues to lower, so our ability to buy more advanced equipment increased and that equipment can help to promote China's export manufacturing sector and export of technical progress in upgrading of the structure. RMB appreciation has reduced the cost of Chinese Enterprises Overseas Investment, which is beneficial for enterprises going abroad to do industry transfer and technology learning, and enlarge the proportion of trade, meanwhile, help less developed areas of the processing trade and spur domestic industrial structure and the structure of export trade to upgrade. RMB appreciation reduced the cost of Chinese enterprises in overseas investment, which will help enterprises to go abroad to carry out industrial transfer and technological learning, and expand the proportion of general trade, driven in less developed areas of processing trade,
promote domestic industrial structure and export trade, upgrading of the structure. China's processing trade is facing industrial upgrading and regional transfer of dual task. In the eastern coastal areas, especially the Pearl River Delta and Yangtze River Delta region, the processing trade is very well developed, In many areas almost to the saturation-free development, through industrial and technological upgrading, improving the grades and value-added processing trade rate; But in Midwest the development of processing trade were relatively stagnant, need to expand trade scale, promote local economic development. Moderate appreciation of RMB, total processing trade will be echoed and promote the upgrading and regional metastasis.

  1.3 control Low-end exports and curb vicious competition, and promote the sustainable development of China's import and export trade
Such problems like high cost in energy and resource, high pollution, low added value, deteriorating terms of trade exist in China's foreign trade growth in exports and foreign investment. At the same time, resources and elements concentrate excessively to export industries and national economic growth is too dependent on external demand. And domestic demand, especially consumption growth is relatively slow. These problems exist in large part due to the elements of production for
export in China, including energy, resources, labor and public input prices, cost of pollution, are underestimated. If RMB appreciates, those products with low value-added price-sensitive commodities (especially in textiles led) and the SMEs with thin profit will suffer the greatest damage. Therefore, through the adjustment of RMB exchange rate reform can help to adjust the enterprise exports (especially textiles export order), change the current situation of vicious price competition, to a certain extent, the allocation of resources will achieve survival of the fittest. Moderate appreciation of RMB equivalent to enhance the export-related factor prices, A lot of resources to rely largely on such factors as inputs and low-cost competition, lower value-added exports, will play more than the inhibition of high value-added exports effect. At the same time, it is equivalent to lowering the price of imported elements, for the greater use of foreign resources in China is to some extent encouraged. Therefore, an appropriate appreciation of the RMB will benefit the overall optimization of the import and export commodity structure.
ⅡRMB appreciation on import and export trade may have negative effects

  2.1 Reduce China's export competitiveness
RMB appreciation will damage, a certain extent, China's export
competitiveness, have influence on national economic growth and employment. "Economic Observer reported" August 23, 2007 reported that if costs and RMB appreciation, China's export price advantage will be diminished, thus reducing China's export competitiveness .It is reported that the rising costs, slow appreciation of the RMB have brought more heavy margin pressure to the Chinese manufacturers and reduced Chinese exports’ price advantage in overseas markets.

  2.2 Increase the gap between regions and labor force
In the long run, RMB appreciation will increase inequalities between the regions as well as between skilled labor and unskilled labor. Assume that the dollar price of the global agricultural market remains unchanged, then the RMB appreciation will depress domestic agricultural prices, thus reducing the real income of farmers. In addition, labor migration will lead to income disparities between skilled labor and unskilled labor of the industrial sector. Resources products, part of the staple agricultural products and low value-added manufactured exports growth slowed down or even declining, may have greater adverse effects on the Midwest, where has a higher degree of resource and agriculture dependence , part of the agriculture-based income of peasants and the employment of low skilled workers .

  2.3 If the RMB appreciate too fast, it will result in the decline in
exports and affect the steady growth of national economy.
If the rate of the RMB appreciates too rapidly or too large, then the impact of its export and import growth may not be so mild. First, export growth rate will lead a substantial drop or fall, which will have a great strike not only on resource and low value-added products but also on the entire export processing industries and employment. Second, it will stimulate part of the goods imported in large and have impact on domestic market and even cause some deflation.

  2.4 other negative effects
Due to sharp appreciation of the RMB, exports will inevitably reduce the impact on economic growth, and deepen unemployment. Significant appreciation of RMB will have nearly all export industries hit. But to those enjoy low-interest export loans, export tax rebates, export subsidies and even domestic industry h


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