A decision is a choice made from among alternative courses of action that are available. The purpose of making a decision is to establish and achieve organizational goals and objectives. The reason for making a decision is that a problem exists, goals or objectives are wrong, or something is standing in the way of accomplishing them. 决策是一种选择, 来自可以获得的、 任择其一的行动步骤。 作决策的意图是要确立和实现机构的目标和目的。作决策的 原因是有问题存在、目标和目的不正确、或者有某种东西妨 碍目标或目的的实现。 Thus the decision-making process is fundamental to management. Almost everything a manager does involves decisions, indeed, some suggest that the management process is decision making. Although managers cannot predict the future, many of their decisions require that they consider possible future events. Often managers must make a best guess at what the future will be and try to leave as little as possible to chance, but since uncertainty is always there, risk accompanies decisions . Sometimes the consequence s of a poor decision are slight; at other times they are serious. 因此,作决策的过程对管理人员来说至关重要。管理者所 做的每件事几乎都与决策有关,事实上,有些人认为管理过
程就是作决策。尽管管理者不能预测未来,但他们所作的许 多决策都要求他们考虑将来可能发生的事情。通常情况下, 管理者必须对未来情况作出最佳估测,并且努力要使偶然事 件尽可能少地发生,但是,由于不确定的因素一直存在,所 以,决策总是与风险为伴。有时候,拙劣决策的后果并不严 重,但在另外一些时候则是非常严重了。 Choice is the opportunity to select among alternatives. If there is no choice, there is no decision to be made. Decision making is the process of choosing, and many decisions have a broad range of choice. For example, a student may be able to choose among a number of different courses in order to implement the decision to obtain a college degree. For managers, every decision has constraints based on policies, procedures, laws, precedents, and the like. These constraints exist at all levels of the organization. 选择是指从多个可能性中挑选的机会。如果没有选择,就 毋须作决策。作决策就是挑选的过程,许多决策的选择范围 很广。例如,一个学生为了获得学位,他可能会从许多不同 的课程中选择从而作出决策。对管理者来说,每项决策都受 到基于政策、程序、法律、惯例等等因素的制约,这些制约 存在于各个层次的机构中。 Alternatives are the possible courses of action from which choices can be made. If there are no alternatives, there is no
choice and, therefore, no decision. If no alternatives are seen, often it means that a thorough job of examining the problems has not been done. For example, managers sometimes treat problems in an either/or fashion; this is their way of simplifying complex problems. But the tendency to simplify blind s them to other alternatives. 抉择是从中可以作出选择的可能的行动步骤。假如没有可 供选择的可能性,这就意味着没有做过对问题进行彻底调查 的工作。例如,管理者有时用两者择一的方式来处理问题, 即他们简化复杂问题的手法。但是,这种简化的倾向使他们 看不到其他可供选择的可能性。 At the managerial level, decision making includes limiting alternatives as well as identify ing them, and the range is from highly limited to practically unlimited. 在管理层,作决策包括了限定和鉴别可供选择的可能性, 其限定范围从非常有限到基本无限。 Decision makers must have some way of determining which of several alternatives is best ? that is, which contributes the most to the achievement of organizational goals. An organizational goal is an end or a state of affairs the organization seeks to reach. Because individuals (and organizations) frequently have different ideas about how to attain the goals, the
best choice may depend on who makes the decision. Frequently, departments or units within an organization make decisions that are good for them individually but that are less than optimal for the larger organization. Called suboptimization, this is a trade-off that increases the advantages to one unit or function but decreases the advantages to another unit or function. For example, the marketing manager may argue effective ly for an increased advertising budget. In the larger scheme of things, however, increased funding for research to improve the products might be more beneficial to the organization. 决策者必须具备从多个可供选择的可能性中确定最佳选 择??即:最有助于实现机构的目标?的手段。机构目标是 该机构竭力要达到的最终目标或理想状态。因为个人(和机 构)常常对达到目标有着不同的主意,所以,最佳选择就取 决于决策者了。在同一机构内的部门或单位经常会作出有利 于他们自己而对大单位不甚理想的决策。被称为局部最优化 的权衡加强了某一单位或某一功能的优势,却削弱了另一单 位或另一功能的优势,例如,市场营销经理会极力要求增加 广告预算。然而,在更大的事情策划中,为改进产品而增加 科研经费可能会更有益于该机构。 These trade-offs occur because there are many objectives that organizations wish to attain simultaneously. Some of these
objectives are more important than others, but the order and degree of importance often vary from person to person and from department to department .Different managers define the same problem in different term s. When presented with a common case, sales managers tend to see sales problems, production managers see production problems, and so on. 这些权衡的产生是因为机构希望同时达到多个目标。有些 目标比其他的目标更重要,但其重要性的先后顺序和等级却 因人而异、因部门而异。不同的管理者对同一个问题持不同 的看法。 面对一件日常事件时, 销售经理常易看到销售问题, 生产经理则常易看到生产问题等等。 The ordering and importance of multiple objectives is also based, in part, on the values of the decision maker. Such values are personal; they are hard to understand, even by the individual, because they are so dynamic and complex. In many business situations different people's values about acceptable degrees of risk and profitability cause disagreement about the correctness of decisions. 多种目标的顺序和重要性也部分地基于决策者的价值观, 这些价值观带有个人特色,他人很难理解,因为价值观是不 断变化的、极为复杂的。在许多商情中,不同的人对于风险 的可接受程度有着不同的价值观,这就造成了决策正确与否
的不同意见。 People often assume that a decision is an isolated phenomenon. But from a systems point of view, problems have multiple causes, and decisions have intended and unintended consequences. An organization is an ongoing entity, and a decision made today may have consequences far into the future. Thus the skilled manager looks toward the future consequences of current decisions. 人们常常以为决策是一个孤立的现象。但从系统的观点来 看,问题具有多种原因,故而决策有意料中的结果和非意料 中的结果。一个机构是一个发展中的实体,今天所作的决策 可能会对将来产生深远的影响。因此,有经验的管理者着眼 于当前决策的将来效果。
Unit Two Black Holes 黑洞 What is a black hole ? well, it's difficult to answer this question , since the terms we would normally use to describe a scientific phenomenon are inadequate here. Astronomers and scientists think that a black hole is a region of space (not
a thing ) into which matter has fallen and from which nothing can escape ? not even light. So we can't see a black hole. A black hole exerts a strong gravitational pull and yet it has no matter . It is only space ? or so we think. How can this happen? 黑洞是什么?这个问题很难回答, 因为我们通常用来描 述某一科学现象的术语不足以回答这个问题。 天文学家 和科学家都认为黑洞是一个太空区域 (不是一种事物) , 落人其中的任何物质都无法逃逸??甚至包括光。 所以 我们看不见黑洞。一个黑洞能产生强大的吸力,但它却 没有物质。它只是空间??或许是我们这么想的。这种 现象是怎样发生的呢? The theory is that some stars explode when their density increases to a particular point; they collapse and sometimes a supernova occurs. From earth, a supernova looks like a very bright light in the sky which shines even in the daytime. Supernova were reported by astronomers in the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries. Some people think that the Star of Bethlehem could have been a supernova. The collapse of a star may produce a White Dwarf or a neutron star ? a star, whose
matter is so dense that it continually shrinks by the force of its own gravity. But if the star is very large (much bigger than our sun) this process of shrinking may be so intense that a black hole results. Imagine the earth reduced to the size of a marble, but still having the same mass and a stronger gravitational pull, and you have some idea of the force of a black hole . Any matter near the black hole is sucked in. It is impossible to say what happens inside a black hole. Scientists have called the boundary area around the hole the "event horizon." We know nothing about events which happen once object s pass this boundary. But in theory, matter must behave very differently inside the hole. 从理论论来说, 当某些恒星的密度增大到某种程度时 就会发生爆炸,爆炸使它们崩溃,有时会产生超新星。 从地球上看,一颗超新星看上去像是天空中的一盏明 灯,甚至在白天也闪闪发光。超新星是由十七、十八世 纪的天文学家发现的。 有人认为圣诞星可能是一颗超新 星。一颗超新星的崩溃可能会产生白矮星或中子星,其 物资的密度非常大以至于在其自身重力的作用下持续
收缩。但是,假如这颗恒星非常大(比我们的太阳大得 多),那么,这种收缩的过程可能会非常强烈,其结果 导致了黑洞的产生。 想像一下地球收缩小到有弹球那么 大,但仍具有同样的质量和更强的吸力,你就会对黑洞 的力量有某种概念。靠近黑洞的任何物质都会被吸入, 根本说不出黑洞里究竟发生了什么、 科学家把黑洞的边 缘区域称为“事界”。 对物质通过这个界线时发生的情 况我们一无所知。从理论上来说,黑洞里面物质的表现 一定是不大相同的。 For example, if a man fell into a black hole, he would think that he reached the center of it very quickly. However an observer at the event horizon would think that the man never reached the center at all. Our space and time law s don't seem to apply to objects in the area of a black hole. Einstein's relativity theory is the only one which can explain such phenomena. Einstein claimed that matter and energy are interchangeable, so that there is no " absolute " time and space. There are no constants at all, and measurements of time and space depend on the position of the observer. They are relative. We do not yet fully understand the implications of
the relativity theory; but it is interesting that Einstein's theory provided a basis for the idea of black holes before astronomers started to find some evidence for their existence. It is only recently that astronomers have begun specific research into black holes. In August 1977, a satellite was launched to gather data about the 10 million black holes which are thought to be in the Milky Way. And astronomers are planning a new observatory to study the individual exploding stars believed to be black holes. 例如,假如一个人落人黑洞,他可能会认为自己很快 就会到达黑洞的中心。然而,位于“事界”上的观察者 则认为这个人永远不会到达黑洞的中心。 我们的时空法 则似乎不适用于黑洞区内的物体。 爱因斯坦的相对论是 惟-解释这种现象的理论。 爱因斯坦宣称物质和能量是 互换的,因此不存在“绝对的”时间和空间。根本没有 不变的事物,时间和空间的衡量取决于观察者的位置, 是相对的。我们还没有能完全理解相对论的蕴涵。但有 趣的是爱因斯坦的相对论为黑洞的假说提供了理论基 础,早于天文学家找到黑洞存在的证据。天文学家只是 在最近才开始对黑洞作具体的研究。1977 年 8 月,人
类发射了一颗卫星收集有关被认为处于银河系中的 1000 万个黑洞的信息。而且天文学家正在设计一座新 天文台,用来研究被认为是黑洞的爆炸恒星。 The most convincing evidence of black holes comes from research into binary star systems. Binary stars, as their name suggests, are twin stars whose position in
 

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